Ever had Inspiration with an Economic Outlook?
“I believe we are all better economists than we realize, and I love showing an audience how to take the simple indicators that surround them in their everyday lives to become better investors and make better business decisions.” – Donald Broughton
“Call it the way you see it. Stop talking and listen carefully once others start talking. Enjoy learning the truth, love the process of getting to the bottom of something. Then lather, rinse, repeat…” T. Boone Pickens
I first met him in 1991 when I was living in Dallas, at a political fundraiser for Dick Armey. Perhaps because I didn’t know who he was at the time, I treated him the same as I try to treat everyone; based upon the value of your ideas, the generosity of heart’s intent, the humility of your ego, the earnestness of your work ethic, the willingness to be a little visionary in your outlook, have a sense of humor about life and take your life’s work very seriously, but never take yourself seriously. Within 15 minutes we became ‘brother’s from another mother’ and at similar events, we established a friendship. Over the years that followed, we continued to talk on the phone a couple of times a year, and was blessed to call him a friend. Always full of sage advice and even more full of wit, Boone Pickens was the first self made billionaire I ever met and got to know. Years later as he was advocating the conversion of the trucking industry to natural gas, we saw each other on the speaker’s circuit a couple of times a year. Several times in my life, when I was feeling overwhelmed with the challenges that I was facing, Boone often had the best advice of anyone whose counsel I sought.
His advice on what I wrote and published as an analyst, as well as what I communicated as a public speaker, forged my path and over time became my brand, became that for which I am known. “Point out the obvious first, and then call it the way you see it. Most people are in such a hurry they forget to outline the simple stuff. Everyone is afraid of ridicule or rejection; so they never take the risk of just telling it the way it is. So, just tell it like it is. It’ll surprise most people, even scare a few. If you do, you may discover that they were thinking the same thing, just none of them had the nerve to say it.
It is often the only way you will ever get people to tell you what they are really thinking or what they actually know. Most people are afraid to be the first to speak, but almost everyone loves to tell you why you are wrong, or why they know more than you do. So, once they start talking shut your mouth and listen to them, once they follow your lead and start talking, if you were wrong and they are right, say so immediately. No harm in learning something or admitting you were mistaken.
Openly debating and discussing ideas with smart people is the fastest, easiest way for any of us to get to the bottom of an issue, to get to the truth of it. When you get to the bottom of something, think you have found the truth, keep telling as much of it as you can, and as often as you can. Two things will happen to you if you do. One, you’ll discover how much damn fun it is! Two, more and more people who actually use their brains to think will come to you, tell you how they think it is, and you will learn even more, which will give you even more truths to tell.” Three decades later, every time I give a speech or write an article, I remember Boone’s advice – Call it the way you see it. Stop talking and listen carefully once others start talking. Enjoy learning the truth, love the process of getting to the bottom of something. Then lather, rinse, repeat…
Start with the obvious – “I think the transportation industry moves all of the things that eventually get reported as economic activity, starting with the very beginning of the supply chain. Since lumber shipments are up (down), we think housing starts are going to be up (down)…”
Do you really think it could be that simple?
Yes, yes I do…
So you are saying that because they are moving more (less) stuff, there is more (less) stuff getting made and sold in the economy?
Yes, that is exactly what I am saying.
Ever had Entertainment with an Economic Outlook?
Economics doesn’t have to be boring! The trends that are driving all of us to make business decisions and create wealth can be very interesting. Broughton is passionate about his subject, without ever taking himself too seriously.
“Broughton is consistently ranked as the best or one of the best speakers at our event every year. We have to keep having him back, because so many of our conference attendees say he is the number one reason they attend.”
“Love or hate him, he will make you think.”
“Every year, after his presentation I have a better way of doing something that I can immediately implement when I get back to my office, a completely new way of looking at something, usually something that I thought I completely understood, and at least one good joke or funny story that I can retell.”
Who is Donald Broughton?
- Donald Broughton founded Broughton Capital at the beginning of 2017, after spending over two decades as one of Wall Street’s top analysts – first at A.G. Edwards where he covered the Transportation industry, led the Industrials Research Team, and served on the firm’s Investment Strategy Committee; then at Avondale Partners where he continued to cover Transportation and also served as the firm’s Chief Market Strategist.
- His stock-picking performance has been repeatedly recognized by The Wall Street Journal as an “All-Star Analyst,” by Forbes in its “When Picky Analysts Pick” series, and ranked by both Zacks Investment Research and Starmine as a 5-Star Analyst (their highest rating).
- He is a frequent guest on CNBC, the Nightly Business Report, CNN, Fox, and NPR.
- Notorious as a hard-hitting forensic accountant, he uses ‘Sell’ ratings more often than any other Transportation analyst, and is highly regarded for his forecasts that translate goods flow data into economic forecasts.
- Prior to going to Wall Street, Mr. Broughton spent almost a decade in various Distribution and Operations management roles in the beverage industry, including serving as the Corporate Manager of Distribution for the Dr Pepper / Seven-Up companies and Chief Operating Officer for Bevmark Concepts.
Why should you listen to him?
- In his role on the A.G. Edward’s Investment Strategy Committee, beginning in mid-2006 Broughton published reports warning of an impending economic slowdown and by early 2007 published reports explaining why a recession was imminent. In July of 2010 and again in September 2011 he explained why fears of a double dip were severely overblown and outlined why the market would have significant rallies by the end of those years.
- In February of 2015, he predicted that the power of the industrial recovery, led by fracking was both under-estimated and coming to an abrupt end.
- In September of 2016, he began predicting that the industrial economy was poised to recover, and that the consumer both in the U.S. and globally were about to better than expected; he also published multiple reports in 2017 explaining why, the accepted wisdom was wrong and that after the ‘learning curve,’ the trucking industry’s adoption of ELDs would actually increase capacity and improve asset utilization.
- Today, he is increasingly concerned about the slowdown in freight flows in multiple modes in the U.S. and around the globe, and believes the trade disputes and tariffs are the single largest reason for the slowdown.